The Unseen Wound: How the Middle East War Is Strangling Africa’s Recovery
Mr. Montfort Mlachila, IMF Deputy Director of the African Department Just as a fragile dawn began to break over sub-Saharan Africa’s economies, a new storm gathered—not on the savannah, but in the deserts of the Middle East. And now, the International Monetary Fund is sounding an urgent alarm: the cost of living crisis is soaring once again, and the continent’s hard-won gains are buckling under the pressure. In its latest Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa , titled “Hard-Won Gains Under Pressure,” the IMF reveals a devastating reversal of fortune. The ripple effects from the ongoing Middle East conflict—from spiking oil and fertiliser prices to fractured transport routes—are tightening a noose around the region’s most vulnerable nations. A Momentum Interrupted Let us be clear about what is at stake. Entering 2026, sub-Saharan Africa was riding a wave of genuine optimism. The region had just recorded its fastest growth in a decade— 4.5 percent in 2025 —dri...